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23/10/2026
Hacked Off
Ofgem warned that Britain “could run out of gas this winter”.
Ofgem modelled a rare stress test – a 1-in-20 cold day plus loss of key infrastructure – and said a gas emergency is not expected. A Belgian supply deal was agreed as a precaution.
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On 22 October 2026, the Daily Mail published a story headlined “Britain could run out of gas this winter, Ofgem warns”. The headline and opening line presented the energy regulator as warning that the UK could run out of gas.
Ofgem actually said something very different.
Its consultation modelled a statutory stress test: “a combination of very high gas demand and the simultaneous loss of a significant source of gas supply capability”. Without intervention, that produced a modelled shortfall of 5 million cubic metres a day. Ofgem stated this “does not mean that a Gas Deficit Emergency is expected to occur”, and its press release described a very rare, unlikely set of circumstances in a system that continues to operate reliably.
In any case, a deal had been agreed as a precaution to address the low risk of a shortfall.
This story reached up to 16.2 million people.
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